The New eCommerce Reality: What’s Shaping Online Retail in 2026

eCommerce has matured from a disruptive force into a core pillar of retail — but it’s evolving in ways that are more nuanced than a simple shift from physical to digital. Today’s landscape is shaped by a dynamic interplay of omnichannel expectations, rising return rates, the resurgence of brick-and-mortar, and a redefinition of Direct-to-Consumer (D2C) strategies. Retailers are discovering that the future of online commerce depends not on abandoning the store, but on integrating every channel into a seamless customer journey.

Brick-and-Mortar: The unexpected engine of eCommerce growth

Despite years of headlines predicting the “death of retail,” physical stores continue to be the backbone of consumer shopping. Research from real estate services and investment management company Colliers shows that brick-and-mortar stores still account for more than 76% of core retail sales, and the pace of decline is slowing as eCommerce growth stabilizes. In addition, stores increasingly fuel digital shopping. According to Colliers, over 30% of online orders in 2024 were fulfilled by stores using services like curbside pickup, in-store pickup, and ship-from-store.

Retailers that win in eCommerce increasingly invest in stores that offer hands-on product engagement, localized assortments, fast pickup options, and easy returns. The store is no longer a separate channel: it’s the connective tissue that makes omnichannel commerce possible.

The rising challenge of returns

As eCommerce sales rise, so do returns, and they’re shaping everything from merchandising strategies to logistics investments.

According to NRF’s 2025 Retail Returns Landscape report, total merchandise returns are projected to reach $849.9 billion in 2025, with online purchases driving a disproportionate share of that cost. Nearly 19.3% of online sales are expected to be returned, compared with a much lower rate for in-store purchases. Consumers are also more demanding than ever:

• 82% say free returns are an important factor in their online shopping decisions
• 81% read a retailer’s return policy before purchasing
• 71% are less likely to shop again after a poor returns experience

At the same time, operational pressure is mounting. Reverse logistics is slow, expensive, and resource-intensive. About 40% of retailers have had to prioritize outbound shipping over processing inbound returns due to limited warehouse capacity, creating delays that erode margins and customer satisfaction.

Fraud is also a growing problem. NRF found that 9% of all returns are fraudulent, and that 45% of consumers feel it’s acceptable to “bend the rules” when returning items — especially younger shoppers who frequently purchase multiple items to bracket sizes or engage in behaviors like “wardrobing” (buying a fashion item with the intent of wearing it once and returning it later).

Retailers are responding in various ways, including charging for return shipping, offering label-free or box-free drop-offs, encouraging exchanges over refunds, and outsourcing returns to third-party providers. However, every policy change requires a delicate balance between protecting profitability and not alienating high-value customers.

Direct-to-Consumer is evolving

The early days of Direct-to-Consumer (D2C) were defined by ambitious startups that bypassed traditional retail to sell directly to consumers online.

But over the last several years, the limitations of a pure D2C model have become clear. Many D2C players have struggled with rising customer acquisition costs, high return rates, supply chain complexity, and high expectations for fast and free shipping. Increasingly, they learned that going direct means owning the entire customer experience, including all the associated costs.

Today, D2C is shifting from a standalone strategy to a component of a broader omnichannel approach. Brands are opening stores, partnering with wholesale retailers, and reevaluating their margins.

In this new phase, D2C is evolving to include:

• Building brand consistency across channels
• Owning customer data to strengthen personalization
• Using stores to improve profitability and reduce return rates
• Balancing owned channels with wholesale partnerships for scale

Omnichannel as the new normal

Underpinning every major shift in the eCommerce landscape is the rise of omnichannel commerce: The expectation that customers should be able to browse, buy, receive, and return products anywhere, anytime, in any format they choose.

Today’s shoppers want:

• Transparent delivery timelines
• Real-time inventory visibility
• Flexible fulfillment options, such as in-store pickup, curbside, or ship-from-store
• Fast and easy returns
• Consistent experience across web, mobile, and store channels

Retailers investing in unified commerce technologies — such as modern ERP systems, AI-driven customer engagement, and integrated order management — are best positioned to deliver this frictionless experience.

Where eCommerce goes next

The forces shaping the eCommerce landscape point to a more interconnected future — one where physical and digital retail strengthen each other rather than compete. Looking ahead, retailers should expect:

• More store openings as brands use physical locations to support fulfillment and discovery
• Greater scrutiny on return economics, with increased emphasis on sustainability and fraud prevention
• Continued evolution of D2C, blending direct channels with traditional wholesale
• Expansion of AI, from virtual try-on tools to more intelligent product recommendations
• Stronger customer expectations, especially around convenience and transparency

Ultimately, the retailers that will lead the next era of commerce are those that view eCommerce not as a separate initiative, but as one component of a holistic, customer-centric strategy.

Contact ArcherPoint by Cherry Bekaert to learn how we can help you develop a winning omnichannel retail strategy that combines physical store locations, eCommerce, customer engagement, and AI-driven insights.

Trending Posts